Mikhail Danilov: "The South is better provided with crop protection products than others"
Mikhail Danilov, General Director of Avgust company, — about the shortage of chemical crop protection products in the Russian Federation, product prices and market prospects in 2024
Fears of a potential shortage of crop protection products in Russia after economic difficulties in 2022 and 2023 have not come true, the market remains saturated, and the product prices will not change significantly in 2024. Despite farmers are not satisfied with the financial results this year, they will not reduce the area of protection application, as this may decrease the farm profitability or cause losses. Mikhail Danilov, General Director of Avgust company, discussed it in the RBC TV Yug interview.
Heart rate check
According to the last year results, the total volume of the market of chemical crop protection products in Russia amounted to 230 thousand tonnes. Given that all the turbulences of 2023 are still present, what can we say about this market as of today, how has it changed, how has it transformed over the year?
It should be said that all the fears of 2022 and 2023 about shortage of some pesticides, exit of some companies from the market or occurrence of other problems did not come true. The market is saturated, but it is not quite right to evaluate it only in tonnage. We always count the areas we protect. We do not see any reduction, despite the fact that the profitability of crop production this year is far from ideal, and agricultural producers are dissatisfied with the established product prices, and hence they reduce expenses for investment projects and machinery purchase. But as for protective measures, they undergo changes in the structure of the products used, but the total areas are not reduced.
Experts and market participants noted that chemical protection products became cheaper this year. At the end of the year, what is the total price reduction?
It varies for different products, but on average it is from 15 to 20%. As for the impact of various factors on the crop production prime cost, manufacturers of crop protection products did not participate in the inflation race this year. Pricing was influenced by the cost of active ingredients for pesticide formulation and the exchange rate, since the bulk of the components is purchased abroad. Our market is quite competitive. For some items, for example, glyphosates, the cost decreased by several times.
Prospects for 2024
Can we give price forecasts for 2024?
Yes, we can. As the prices for active ingredients and coformulants have practically fallen to a historical minimum, no further intensive decrease can be expected. At the same time, a sharp increase in the yuan, dollar, and euro exchange rates will result in some increase of the pesticide cost. It will not be as large as at the end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022 — 30–40%. We can predict approximately 5–10% increase relative to 2023.
It is known that work on introducing quotas for the import of chemical protection products is currently underway. In your opinion, how can this affect the market in 2024?
Any protectionism concerning domestic production is a useful thing. Thus, when domestic capacities are enough to fully meet the market demands, it is necessary to consider measures that protect a domestic producer, which pays taxes within the country, in competition with foreign companies. This is not about a ban — this is about quotas for foreign-made products. The capacities that currently exist in the Russian Federation are about 400 thousand tons per year. This exceeds the market demands considerably. The quotas will support the Russian business, but they will not affect the crop protection product consumers.
On the crop protection products market in the South
How well have the South and North Caucasus been provided with the crop protection products this year, and how positive are market opportunities there?
The South has always been better supplied. There were no problems in either 2022 or 2023. And they will not occur in 2024. We communicate with importers of finished products and with Russian manufacturers. By December 2023, we have purchased about 90% of the necessary active ingredients, coformulants, so we do not see any problems. The South of Russia is the region that is supplied with protection products best of all. The market there is huge, the use of pesticides per 1 ha is the largest in the Russian Federation. All major manufacturers are actively competing for it.
Will the consumption of chemical crop protection products grow in the South of Russia?
Kuban reached a technologically reasonable level of pesticide consumption long ago. One should not expect any significant growth there. But in Russia, there are regions that have not yet reached the proper level of use of crop protection products. We can expect growth in these regions. Despite the fact that the situation in crop production is far from ideal this year, any reduction of the protected areas is the last thing farmers will do. You see, a decrease in the consumption of chemical crop protection products will lead to a decrease in profitability or losses. They will minimize investment projects, general business expenses, save on the purchase of equipment and repair what they have, but this will affect the South to a lesser extent.
We communicated with you at the 30th Anniversary International Exhibition YugAgro 2023. What are your impressions of it?
YugAgro is the leading agricultural exhibition in Russia. This is a well-known fact. Everyone strives to come here, with understanding that the entire range of technologies for agriculture will be presented here. Here one can talk with experts, here one can see everything. This is the most representative exhibition in Russia indeed.